It will be a good year for guac, according to Avocados From Mexico.
On Jan. 8, the group announced it expects a record-breaking 2.5 billion pounds of Mexican avocados will be delivered to the U.S. in the 2025-26 season. Of that, it expects 280 million pounds will be available for the Super Bowl. The group is also eyeing the upcoming World Cup for aggressive avocado promotion, according to Alvaro Luque, president and CEO of AFM.
“We have a monster crop in Mexico with amazing sizing, and that gave us wings to have a very strong promotional program,” Luque tells The Packer. “This is a very important year for the U.S. because you’re going to have a lot of momentum, a lot of people gathering for sports events. And every time that they gather in front of a TV, it’s prime time for guacamole.”
Rain Makes a Monster Crop With Sizing Options
Luque explains the good rains that have hit Mexico, just like they’ve hit the Pacific Northwest and California here in the U.S. Unlike in parts of the Pacific U.S., however, the rains in Mexico have not been damaging to the crops, but just good, solid water, he says. And that has been beneficial to the avocado crops for export, which are largely rain-irrigated.
The rains are behind the forecasts for record export volumes, Luque continues.
“In the past two years, we’ve had a little less rain than what we were expecting, and when that happens, the size of the fruit is not as large as we expect,” he says. “So even though we’ve been sending to the U.S. a lot of units in the past two years, the volume has been a little bit down. This year was completely the opposite.”
According to the Hass Avocado Board’s 2024 Year in Review report, released in the summer of 2025, Mexico sent 2.31 billion pounds of avocados to the U.S. The report also noted avocado sizes were trending down, especially in Mexico and California, due in large part to older trees. Luque says the sizing in this year’s crop is turning that around.
“The past two years, especially last year, we had a lot of issues getting 48s into the market,” he says. “We thought at some point that 60s were going to become the next 48s because we were getting so many 60s. But this year we have plenty, plenty of 48s, and we know that is the industry favorite for promotion.”
He acknowledges some retailers have embraced the smaller avocados, especially in the bagged market, but says AFM projects plenty of sizes will be available for retailers’ needs.
“We’re going to be able, with this type of crop, to support the growth of the bag business,” he says. “But at the same time, we’re going to be able to promote the 48s that a lot of big retailers like the Whole Foods, the H-E-Bs, that love the larger fruit. So we have that perfect combination to support bulk and bag into one single crop.”
Promotional Plans Surrounding Sports
AFM also projects there will be record-breaking volumes of avocados available for the Super Bowl at 280 million pounds imported in the four weeks leading up to the Feb. 8 event. The “big game” is one of AFM’s “tent pole” promotional events around which it historically has launched many targeted campaigns.
“As avocado consumption in the U.S. has more than doubled over the past decade, our role has evolved beyond simply supplying fruit,” says Stephanie Bazan, senior vice president of commercial strategy and execution, in the group’s announcement. “We are a strategic partner to retailers, combining dependable volume with programs that help turn demand into results at shelf.”
Luque echoed this in talking with The Packer.
“We want to be sure that our clients have the confidence that we’re going to supply them with the fruit consistently throughout the year,” adding that retailers can depend on the promotional programs AFM has planned. He notes that, while historically AFM’s promotional efforts usually taper off after Cinco de Mayo, this year “it’s going to be back-to-back promotional activity from here to July.”
“This is a special year where we have a lot of fruit, and we have a World Cup,” he says, referencing the FIFA World Cup 2026, which will see soccer games held across the U.S., Canada and Mexico from June 11 to July 19.
“That’s an amazing combination to have in a record-breaking year because we’re going to be able to have a lot of fruit to support the World Cup event,” Luque says. “We envision a lot of good momentum for the category after Cinco de Mayo with this type of event.”
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