U.S. online grocery sales in May finished at $8.7 billion, a 27% increase compared to last year with delivery driving nearly all the gains, according to the Brick Meets Click Grocery Shopper Survey fielded May 30–31, and sponsored by Mercatus.
While this marks the first month since August 2024 when total monthly sales have fallen below $9.5 billion, a larger month-over-month decline had been expected based on seasonal patterns seen across e-grocery, according to a news release. Total e-grocery sales for May fell 12% from April, compared to 16% and 20% for the same months in 2023 and 2024, respectively, due to delivery’s strong results this year, the release said.
Delivery registered a massive sales lift in May, greater than 70% compared to last year, as monthly sales climbed to $3.9 billion. This sales jump was driven by sizable gains in the monthly active user (MAU) base combined with a double-digit jump in order frequency and higher average order values (AOV) compared to last year. Consequently, delivery’s share of e-grocery sales jumped nearly 13 points year-over-year to 45.4% in May, the release said.
“Delivery’s high growth rate for May is an outlier and reflects the cumulative impact of wave after wave of promotional activity that began fueling stronger sales for the service method in June 2024,” said David Bishop, partner for Brick Meets Click. “While these promotions generally appeal to existing customers, Walmart’s effort is also helping the retailer to attract new customers. But, either way, it’s helping to grow delivery’s user base, order frequency and AOV.”
According to the survey, pickup sales fell 3.6% year-over-year (YOY) to $3.2 billion in May. The sales decline happened despite mid-single-digit growth of the method’s MAU base that could not offset a drop in order frequency and slightly lower AOV. As a result, pickup lost over 11 points of sales share versus last year, finishing with 37.2% in May.
Ship-to-home appears to benefit indirectly from delivery’s boom, mainly in mass, as the method surged 20.7% YOY in May to $1.5 billion, the release said. The ability to buy products from pure-plays at prices on par with physical stores and enjoy free shipping from an expanding range of providers is likely one factor triggering higher demand. Even though the method posted gains in its MAU base coupled with lifts to order frequency and AOV, ship-to-home lost 90 basis points of sales share, ending the month with 17.5%.
As for customers who completed at least one e-grocery order during the month, the overall base of MAUs — which includes all receiving methods and retail formats — expanded more than 10% in May versus last year, but the expansion was not evenly distributed. Delivery’s specific MAU base grew three times that rate YOY, and Walmart saw its MAU base for all three online grocery methods expand about one and one-half times faster than the overall rate, the release said.
Overall e-grocery order frequency rose over 10% YOY in May, due almost entirely to increases connected with delivery. Pickup’s rate contracted, and ship-to-home’s rate grew but to a smaller degree than delivery. These results are not surprising because delivery is the primary beneficiary of the numerous membership and subscription offers flooding the market over the past 12 months as these programs motivate increased usage, the survey showed.
The weighted average AOV, based on sales across all three methods, posted a small YOY gain of just under 4%. As with order frequency, delivery reported the highest YOY increase and double the gain posted by ship-to-home, while pickup AOV contracted slightly.
In addition, the survey showed customer satisfaction as measured by expectations for continued usage finished May on a high note compared to last year. The repeat intent rate for May 2025 increased 900 bps versus last year, ending the month at 66.8%. Repeat intent rates improved YOY across all customer types, spanning from first timers to the more engaged/frequent users. This trend was also seen across key retail formats, like mass and grocery (including supermarkets and hard discounters), as well as delivery and pickup, the release said.
Ensuring customers are satisfied is essential as cross-shopping continues to climb. The rate of cross-shopping between grocery and mass rose more than two points this year, ending May at 33.7%. Meanwhile the comparable rate between grocery and Walmart increased by over four points YOY. This means that one out of four households in Grocery’s MAU base also completed an online grocery order with Walmart sometime during May, up from one out of five last year, the release said.
“These results show how quickly shopper demand has shifted to delivery over the past 12 months, raising the stakes for regional grocers,” said Mark Fairhurst, chief growth marketing officer for Mercatus. “While collaborating with delivery platforms is often essential for grocers, the key is to ensure that these partnerships strengthen — not weaken — their connection with the customer. Regionals that control the digital experience, leverage pickup’s first-party strengths and build trust through personalized experiences will be best positioned to retain loyalty and share as the market evolves.”